Analysis of cowpea price forecasting in Adamawa state, Nigeria

  1. Joshua, J. Zalkuwi

 

Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Agricultural sciences, Adamawa State University Mubi, Adamawa State, Nigeria

 

(Manuscript received 15 March 2019; accepted for publication 5 June 2019)

 

Abstract. The study was conducted to analyze cowpea price forecasting in Adamawa State, Nigeria. The sources of data for the study were secondary data which were collected from State Planning Commission of Adamawa State for a period of 5 years (2013-2017). Purposive sampling techniques were used for selection of the study area. Dicky Fuller Test and Simple Exponential Smoothing Model were used as analytical tools. The unit root test analysis revealed almost all the markets price series were non-stationary at level except Jambutu market (AD5) at 5% significant level but became stationary after first difference. The result of Exponential Smoothing Model showed that there will be upward trend of cowpea prices in Adamawa State in February and October – November in the year 2018 and therefore, it is recommended that provision of better infrastructural facilities such as construction of accessible and motorable roads, and communication network by government and NGOs. This would reduce transfer cost which usually gets translated to the prices of the cowpeas, especially across markets in critical distance.